It’s only been a couple of days since Trump’s big bombs (“Bunker Busters”) were dropped on Iranian nuclear sites. In the hours after the bombing raid, Administration officials crowed about the success of the mission. But sensible people knew that it was too soon to declare “Mission Accomplished.” (Remember that one? If you don’t, or are too young, Google “Bush Carrier Mission Accomplished.”) Bitter experience has taught (some of) us that after-action damage assessments, especially when conducted at a distance, take time.
As I write this, the “success” of the mission still isn’t clear. It is quite possible, however, that Trump’s unconstitutional gambit may not have accomplished everything that he and his enablers (including Netanhayu) wanted. If the mission didn’t succeed as well as the Trumpsters claimed, there may be a few reasons.
For one thing, bombing often doesn’t do as much as proponents of air power would like you to think, even when the bombs being dropped are called “Bunker Busters.” (Another lesson there: Don’t get fooled by brand names.)
And more importantly, the Iranians may have moved some of the targeted material before Trump started the festivities. After all, Trump repeatedly telegraphed that a raid like this one might be coming. According to a story posted by NBC news on June 16 and 17–four days before the bombing missions–when Trump suddenly left the G7 summit he “requested that the National Security Council be prepared in the Situation Room when he returned” to Washington, and he said “he believes Iran was close to developing a nuclear weapon despite the March testimony of Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard to Congress saying otherwise. ‘I don’t care what she said. I think they were very close to having it,’ Trump said. According to Fox News, he also posted on Truth Social that his departure from the G7 “‘certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that.'”
So if you were the Iranians, wouldn’t all that publicly available information prompt you to, maybe, find another hiding spot for the stuff that you would like to keep, but that the US and Israel don’t want you to have?
Perhaps this is just another case of Trump believing his big, all-knowing gut and not his defense and intelligence people. Prior to the bombing raid, there was satellite imagery of trucks lining up near the Fordow nuclear site. As Newsweek explained, “Pictures taken on Thursday and Friday showed ‘unusual truck and vehicular activity’ close to the entrance of the underground Fordow complex south of Tehran, satellite imagery firm Maxar said late on Saturday.” If Maxar had those images, it’s pretty obvious that US defense and intelligence agencies would have had that or similar imagery, as well. Were the defense and intelligence briefers too frightened of Trump’s reaction to tell him that the material he wanted to bomb might not even be at Fordow anymore, or did Trump simply not believe them? Eventually, we may find out.
Right now, we’ll have to wait to see what the bombing did to Iran, to prospects for peace and safety for people around the world, and to the political and constitutional fortunes of the American people.