JD Vance said that the “real reason” for last night’s election outcome was voter anger over the war with Iran. The explanation is self-serving in a number of respects.
First, JD was rumored to have opposed the war, so if he could get Republicans to buy the notion that the war was the reason for the Democratic rout of the Republicans, he gets to look like a real smartypants going into the primaries leading up to the 2028 presidential contest.
Second, the notion that the war was the only, or main, thing that led to last night’s outcome would be deeply comforting to Republicans. It’s simplistic, which is a quality embraced by MAGA. And it allows the party to find a convenient scapegoat for the losses: Donald J. Trump.
Of course, Trump is one of the main cause of the losses. He shot himself and his party in the foot so blatantly and repeatedly that it’s mysterious why we aren’t hearing Republicans calling for him to be removed under the 25th Amendment. But it wasn’t just the war, and it wasn’t just Trump.
After all, the Republican-led Congress completely capitulated to Trump and his Administration, letting Trump do whatever he wants, thereby abdicating their constitutional role as a counterweight and limit on the Executive branch. They didn’t just capitulate. They enabled.
In thinking about last night’s results, it’s helpful to observe that the Republicans got crushed by losing ground with a broad swathe of voters—young, old, white, black, brown, suburban, urban, and rural, and across a broad range of economic classes. So some of the items I’ll list here would motivate some of the blue wave voters and not others. And this is by no means a complete list, but here goes:
Along with the war, voters were unhappy with the cruel ICE raids; the Trump revenge campaign against people who crossed him; the construction projects that Trump couldn’t stop boasting about while Americans were suffering; the tariffs; Trump’s unquestioning support for Netanyahu (which especially rankled younger voters); cuts and threatened cuts to Medicare and Medicaid; other impacts of the One Big, Beautiful bill (on college loans and a lot of other things); the Administration’s overt racism; Trump’s cozying up to Putin; Trump’s threats against Canada, Iceland, and Greenland; concerns about Trump’s undermining of NATO, Ukraine, and US standing in the world; Trump’s silly renaming of bodies of water; the extrajudicial murders of people on alleged drug smuggling boats; the Administration’s undermining of our healthcare system, which had disproportionate effects on healthcare in rural areas; the Republicans’ ham-handed handling of concerns over date centers; and the sense that the entire system was rigged to benefit tech billionaires and a tech trillionaire who didn’t even have the good sense to low-key their schemes to undermine democracy.
And let’s not forget Trump’s minimizing of inflation concerns (which compounded the political problems caused by the tariffs and the war), and his celebration of energy company profits while Americans struggle to pay for food and fuel.
Oh, and the corruption too. We can’t forget the extent to which the Trump family has brazenly enriched itself since Trump retook office.
There’s also Trump’s unhinged name-calling, bizarre social media posting, and all-around unfitness. He made the election about himself, after all.
There’s lots of other stuff that led to this glorious day, but I don’t want to go on too long. My point has been made: the war was part of what led to last night’s magnificent results, but—and this may be too complicated for JD’s simpleminded brain to process— the result was overdetermined. And don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
PS: A friend of mine has reminded me that her late father, Leon Blum, was born on November 3rd, so this may also have been a birthday present from him to us. So, I’ll just say “thank you” to Leo.